The Suez Crisis of 1956-57, OPEC oil embargo of 1973-74, Iran-Iraq War beginning in November 1980, and Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990 all occurred during Republican terms, and all seemed to contribute to weak performance of the U.S. Instead, one of the variables that they find did seem to play a role is oil price shocks. They find little statistical explanatory power in any differences in monetary or fiscal policy under Democrats compared with Republicans. Source:Īfter documenting that the difference in economic performance between Republican and Democratic administrations is statistically significant and highly robust,īlinder and Watson go on to investigate what accounts for the difference. average annualized GDP growth rates, by term. Influence over the economy most economists (or the Constitution, for that matter) assign to the Performance gap is startlingly large–so large, in fact, that it strains credulity, given how little Ubiquitous it holds almost regardless of how you define success. The superiority of economic performance under Democrats rather than Republicans is nearly An interesting new research paper by Princeton Professors Alan Blinder and Mark Watson examines differences in performance of the economy under Democratic versus Republican presidents.
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